The Euro remain steady in the near-term after prices showed a double bottom formation around 1.1125 support. The single currency traded higher by the end of the week, however, the pair found strong resistance at 1.1250 level, which represents the 50% fibonacci retracement from 1.1365 peak coupled with the bearish trendline in the hourly chart. Therefore, prices are likely to consolidate in a sideways manner until we see a clear breakout above this barrier, which will open the path of 1.1328 resistance followed by a re-test of 1.1365 area in extension.
In the opposite, only a daily close below 1.1125 support should put the pair under pressure again.
Cable sold-off sharply on Friday as prices managed to break below the 1.3000 psychological support, the pair has made a fresh weekly low at 1.2915 before to stabilize around 1.2960 level. Looking at the recent price action, we have seen a strong bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart, which may clear the path for further weakness in the pair towards 1.2865 weekly support followed by 2016 low, which stands at 1.2795. Meanwhile, the pair still need to show a daily close below 1.2945 support to confirm the next wave to the downside.
Finally, if prices manage to recover during the beginning of next week, then we will look for resistance around 1.3020/45 area before the selloff resume. This scenario is valid as far as 1.3120 peak is intact.
From a technical standpoint, the pair remain clearly oversold in the short-term; in the meantime, we continue to see strong reaction each time the pair is trying to break below 100.00 psychological support. This level is important to Bank of Japan officials, and we may still see some interventions from time to time around this level.
Looking at the recent price action, the pair failed near 102.80 resistance level and extended its decline below the 101.00 daily support, which cleared the path for a big sell-off that reached as low as 100.10 following the recent FOMC rate decision.
In the near-term, momentum indicators started to show some positive signs; however, the current jump can be defined as a dead cat bounce as the pair remain strongly bearish below 102.80 peak. Therefore, this recovery can be short-lived and we expect strong sellers to appear between 101.20/101.45 resistance zone, before to see a downside reaction again.
In extension, a break above this zone should open the way to a re-test of 101.75 resistance..
Finally, the picture remain negative in the daily chart as prices keep printing lower highs since early 2016 peak and consequently, the selling pressure is likely to resume when the fundamental dynamics converge again.
The pair continue to fight for a clear direction in the near-term, volatility increased on Friday as Saudis do not see output deal for Oil.
Technically, prices fell on Wednesday to retrace 50% of the entire recovery seen from
1.2762 low before to bounce strongly from this level, which coincide with the 1.3000 handle.
Consequently, the outlook has turned positive again in the hourly chart, and another attempt to break above 1.3250 barrier is likely during the week ahead.
If the pair succeed to overtake this crucial resistance, then traders should expect a big rally in the coming days that can target as high as 1.3430-1.3500 zone as the current market environment can be ideal for such a break higher, with Oil under pressure and commodity currencies sideways to higher.
In the flip side, a breakdown below 1.3000 psychological support should cancel this positive outlook.
The yellow metal managed to preserve 1300 handle, which is considered as a major support in the daily chart. Gold benefited from dovish FED comments to recover from its recent losses, breaking above 1328 short-term resistance and reaching a high of $1344 per ounce on Friday.
This level represents the 61.8% retracement of the bearish cycle that comes from 1367 peak to 1302 low, consequently, a downside correction can be seen early next week.
Looking at the biggest picture, gold remain bullish as far as prices keep trading above 1300 psychological support, however we still need to see a clear breakout above 1352/1357 resistance zone to confirm another extension higher towards 1367 level followed by 2016 high at $1375 per ounce.
In the near-term, if prices correct lower, then we will look for support around 1328/1300 zone before a new bullish cycle begin.
Technically, the Dollar remain steady despite that the U.S Manufacturing PMI came out less than expected in September.
Bulls managed to protect the 95.00 daily support and for the time being, the focus is on 95.55 near-term barrier as a break above it should send prices higher towards 96.00 handle.
Recently, the Dollar index broke above its bearish trend line that comes from 97.60 peak reinforcing the bullish outlook in the near-term and the recent bounce can be considered as a positive sign as traders began to digest the recent statement from the FED. Therefore, the selling pressure may unwind in the coming days.
As of now, it is clear that market participants are pricing on a rate hike in December, meanwhile, the U.S dollar can resume its advance towards the mentioned above zone.
In the downside, only a daily close below 94.90 support will put the Dollar under pressure again.
The Australian Dollar jumped from the 50% retracement of the cycle that comes from 0.7760 peak to 0.7150 low, and continue to print higher lows in the daily chart, which keeps the bullish trend intact in this pair.
Prices succeeded to overtake 0.7620 resistance level, and by now, a move back in the direction of 0.7575/60 area should offer fresh long opportunities for buyers. In the near-term, the pair should trade sideways as momentum indicators are sitting in the overbought territories and we will focus on the key levels to determine the next directional move.
To summarize, the pair is bullish in the daily chart while the hourly chart is sideways to positive and as far as 0.7550/70 zone is intact, another rally cannot be ruled out in the following days.
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